Assessing China’s Influence in Pakistan
by Captain (IN) TSV Ramana (Retd.) & Captain (IN) KK Agnihotri (Retd.)
Chinese activities in countries in India’s immediate neighbourhood have always attracted attention. This is due to the assessment that these activities generate ‘influence.’ Analysts feel that this ‘influence’ provides China with leverage, which it utilises to further its interests, and in some cases, it will use it to encash the same at a future date, at an appropriate time. Further, it is felt that there is a need for India to be wary of this and to take remedial actions to protect its own interests.
The need to respond to these Chinese activities results in a situation in which India’s Comprehensive National Power (CNP) collides with China’s. However, given the wide differential between the CNPs of the two countries, it is not considered practical for India to counter each and every activity of China. Hence, there is a need to identify the metrics that could serve as indicators of influence. Further, once a clearer understanding of the nature and extent of China’s influence becomes apparent, it may become easier to work out the way ahead.
Friendly relations between Pakistan and China are well known and can almost be considered axiomatic. The relations between the two countries persist despite the fact that the two countries do not share any ethnic, linguistic, cultural, social or political commonality. Similarly, India and China also do not have any linguistic, cultural, social or political commonality. However, both countries have a tense relationship that sees regular ups and downs. Incidentally, both India and Pakistan have commonalities with respect to language, culture and ethnicity. Further, all three countries are each other’s neighbours and also possess nuclear weapons. The one factor that is common to both Pakistan and China is the existence of territorial and sovereignty disputes with India.
However, unlike other neighbouring countries of India, there is no contestation between Chinese and Indian influence in Pakistan. The question here is, just how much influence China wields in Pakistan? The aspect of Chinese influence has been assessed under 15 broad metrics. However, there is no need to assess how China and India fare relative to each other under each metric.
The China-Pakistan nexus appears to be primarily based on a shared enmity with India. China has, on a sustained basis, propped up Pakistan politically, economically, and, more importantly, militarily to contain India. China’s presence in the Aksai Chin dispute, in addition to its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, increases India’s vulnerability on the Western and Eastern fronts. If India continues to substantially lag behind China in its Comprehensive National Power (CNP), this nexus is likely to grow stronger and further marginalise India’s status in the region.
Chinese Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance systems provided real-time data, situational awareness, and surveillance capabilities to Pakistani forces during OP-Sindoor. China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system played a critical role, including in missile guidance for the PL-15, thereby reaffirming the direct integration of Chinese systems into Pakistani battlefield operations.
It is interesting to note that, by design or by default, manifestos of the major political parties of Pakistan seem to be indicative of the fact that, for Pakistan, China is a lifeline for survival in all fields, not as a matter of choice, but as a matter of compulsion.
An anomaly appears between Pakistan’s official statistics and data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics regarding the overall loans and grants China has provided to Pakistan. According to China’s official statistics, the value of turnover fulfilled for contracted projects in Pakistan from 2007 to 2024 is US$ 74.6 billion. However, Pakistan’s official statistics indicate it received a cumulative loan of US$ 27.45 billion from 2007 to 2026 (February) and a cumulative grant of US$ 0.139 billion during the same period. China’s official statistics indicate that it has spent US$ 47 billion in excess of what is being shown in the official statistics of Pakistan. However, there is currently no breakdown of this expenditure or explanation for this discrepancy.
The advantage for Pakistan is that China is unlikely to take punitive action against it, even when differences arise between them, unlike the US, which may be prone to measures such as sanctions. The advantage for China is that Pakistan is willing to play the role of a near vassal state that will blindly support China, especially against India. Further, Pakistan’s proximity to the United States accords it its own advantages.
It is clear that both China and Pakistan are mutually benefiting from this relationship. If the benefits accrued to only one side, this relationship would not have endured. The China-Pakistan nexus is likely to continue and grow stronger, notwithstanding any resistance from the local population or political entities.
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