India’s Year of Europe and Growth Amid Global Uncertainties

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In September, India conducted high-intensity diplomacy by engaging on platforms such as the SCO, BRICS, the 81st Session of the United Nations General Assembly, and holding numerous meetings on the sidelines of the UNGA. Last week, India and Europe advocated for a reformed multilateralism at the UNGA. The week was defined by conceptual reimaginations and bilateral and multilateral interactions between Indian and European leaders.

Europe

Speaking at the Munich Leaders Meeting (MLM), convened by the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Delhi (October 4 to 5), EAM S Jaishankar noted that for India this has been a ‘year of Europe.’ Noting that in a multipolar world, countries will hedge and diversify, EAM S Jaishankar stated: “The idea is that countries will have relationships with players that may not always be easy to harmonise, but nevertheless are a reality and a compulsion for countries….so it’s a sort of strategy of advancing by hedging.”1

The growing India-Europe ties were also evident in the visit of the President of Switzerland, along with a large business delegation, to India from 5 to 7 October.2 During the visit, both countries decided to scale up trade and economic cooperation and to promote Swiss investment in key sectors such as biotechnology, life sciences, food processing, sustainability, and banking.3 During the visit, agreements were signed on mobility partnerships, exchange of young professionals, and scientific research collaborations.4

On October 1st, India-Bulgaria Foreign Office consultations were held in Delhi. The conversations focused on wide-ranging bilateral issues, including cooperation in ‘trade, investment, science and technology, AI, space, defence, education, culture, and people-to-people ties.’5

On September 30, on the margins of the G20 Trade Ministers’ meeting in Milwaukee, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic.6 Both leaders discussed progress on the India-EU FTA, the India-EU Trade and Technology Council, meaningful WTO reform and shared G20 priorities.7

Americas

In the recent past, there has been steady improvement in India-Canada relations. On September 27, EAM S Jaishankar met with his Canadian counterpart, Anita Anand.8 Both ministers “discussed efforts to advance negotiations for a Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement … [and cooperation in the domains of] renewable energy, critical minerals and civil nuclear energy..”9 Prime Minister Modi may visit Canada toward the end of this year.

The downturn in India-US relations continued this week despite interactions between the two countries’ leaders. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by phone with US President Donald Trump on September 30.10 The two leaders discussed cooperation in trade, defence, energy, critical technologies, and related areas.11 A day later, Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reviewed progress on free trade negotiations.12 Earlier, the US Commerce Department provided a waiver for ‘India along with 20 other countries’, making them eligible ‘for a zero per cent US tariff on certain speciality pharmaceutical products and their associated ingredients.’13 Meanwhile, Mesabi Metallics, a subsidiary of India’s ESSAR, has announced it will build one of the largest steel plants in Iowa, United States, with a proposed cost of $15 billion.14 President Trump announced the investment at the White House.15

Neighbourhood

In the neighbourhood, the concerns about the Chinese economic tactics persisted. Towards the end of the month, India initiated an anti-dumping probe into seven products, including engineering and pharma products, from Chinese firms.16 Pakistan’s illegal cross-border movements raised concerns in India. On October 03, India’s Ministry of External Affairs summoned the Chargé d’Affaires of the Pakistan High Commission to protest illegal cross-border infiltration and armed narcotics syndicates from Pakistan, with ‘the complicity of Pakistan border guarding forces.’17

During the week, India engaged neighbourhood countries through regional frameworks. The Indian government hosted the BIMSTEC Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime in Delhi on September 28-29.18 The meeting discussed reports of various subgroups pertaining to human trafficking, illicit drugs, money laundering, terrorist financing, law enforcement, and others.19 On September 30, India virtually hosted the 9th Deputy National Security Adviser-level meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC), attended by officials from Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka.20 The meeting discussed traditional and non-traditional security issues in the Indian Ocean region.21

Economy

Uncertainties in the global economic order seem to have prompted policymakers to build resilience in the Indian economy. Reflecting on the current state of the global economy, at an economic conclave on October 03, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that “financial stability is not about preventing risks…it is about strengthening systemic resilience to face those shocks and contain their amplifications.”22 The Reserve Bank governor articulated 5 key priorities to promote financial stability: strengthening systemic resilience; better understanding the new generation of systemic risks; improving monitoring and risk assessment frameworks; extending resilience across the entire financial ecosystem; and ensuring financial innovation strengthens trust.23

Earlier on October 01, speaking at the G20 Trade Ministers Meeting in Milwaukee, U.S., India’s commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said, “diversification of production and supply chains is a legitimate objective, but cannot be used as a pretext for measures outside WTO rules or for shifting the burden of adjustment onto developing countries.”

While concerns about global trade practices remain, data and analysis of the Indian economy continue to project optimistic trends. A Report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Confederation of Indian Industry estimates that “India’s consumer durables market is expected to witness significant growth to touch ₹3-3.25 lakh crore by 2030.”24 According to provisional data released by the Ministry of Finance on October 1, India’s GST collection in September rose 14.7% to over ₹2.04 trillion.25 According to the index of industrial production, the manufacturing sector grew by 9%, while the electricity and gas sector grew by 12.3%.26

During the week, India continued engaging with other strategic partners to secure increased investment. India and the United Arab Emirates held a high-level joint task force meeting on investments in Mumbai on September 28.27 After the meeting, India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the United Arab Emirates may invest another $25 billion in India in the coming years.28 To increase economic engagement with India, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman held bilateral talks with her counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Jordan, and Nepal on September 28 on the sidelines of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) 2026 Annual Meeting in Doha.29

Defence and Technology

The Tarang Shakti 2026 military exercises, initiated on September 26, continued throughout the week. The India-Kazakhstan joint military exercise, KAZIND, focused on counterterrorism operations in semi-urban and mountainous terrain and began on September 28 in Oskemen, Kazakhstan.30 India and Ethiopia held a joint defence cooperation meeting on September 28 in Addis Ababa, focused on training, peacekeeping, and defence industries.31

A Goldman Sachs publication (September 26) on India’s emerging AI ecosystem noted that “services exports have become the country’s powerhouse…[and]…The composition of these exports is also shifting—from traditional IT services to higher-value engineering and AI-led capabilities.”32 The publication also observed that the Global Capability Centres (GCCs) are creating a tectonic shift…with more than 1,700 GCCs in the country currently and projected to grow into a \~$110 billion sector by 2030 with \~2,200-2,500 GCCs.” 33 The Goldman Sachs publication estimated that “Generative AI is expected to add $1.2-$1.5 trillion to India’s GDP by 2030.” 34

(BISAG‑N) and IIT Gandhinagar have successfully demonstrated “India’s first free‑space Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link at a scale of 5.56 km.”35 According to reports, the trial laid the foundation for “advancing India’s capabilities in secure communication infrastructure, strengthening resilience against emerging quantum‑era security threats.”36

Conclusion

As noted, India’s relationship with Europe continued to strengthen during the week. While India-Canada relations seem to be on the mend, India-US relations continued to experience stress despite leadership-level conversations. In the neighbourhood, there were continued concerns about Chinese economic tactics and Pakistan government’s complicity in cross-border infiltrations. Leading global agencies continue to provide a positive assessment of the Indian economy. During the week, India continued efforts to increase investment from strategic partners. India also conducted military engagements with Kazakhstan and Ethiopia, indicating growing diversity in its defence partnerships. Reports suggest India’s AI ecosystem is rapidly evolving and may become a key driver of India’s economic growth in the coming years.

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Endnotes

[1] Pangambam S, “Transcript: S Jaishankar Speaks at Munich Security Conference 2026 in New Delhi,” The Singju Post, October 5, 2026 https://singjupost.com/transcript-s-jaishankar-speaks-at-munich-security-conference-2026-in-new-delhi/

[2] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “State Visit of President of the Swiss Confederation to India (5–7 October 2026), October 01, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41838/State_Visit_of_President_of_the_Swiss_Confederation_to_India_57_October_2026

[3] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “English Translation of Press Statement by the Prime Minister during the Joint Press Statement with the President of Switzerland,” October 5, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements?dtl/41844/English_Translation_of_Press_statement_by_the_Prime_Minister_during_the_Joint_Press_Statement_with_the_President_of_Switzerland_October_05_2026

[4] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “List of Outcomes: State Visit of President of the Swiss Confederation to India (October 05–07, 2026),” October 05, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents?dtl/41845/List_of_Outcomes_State_Visit_of_President_of_the_Swiss_Confederation_to_India_October_05__07_2026

[5] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “7th India–Bulgaria Foreign Office Consultations,” press release, October 01, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41840/7th_IndiaBulgaria_Foreign_Office_Consultations

[6] DD India, “Piyush Goyal Meets EU Trade Commissioner, Discusses Progress on Signing FTA,” October 1, 2026, https://ddindia.co.in/2026/10/piyush-goyal-meets-eu-trade-commissioner-discusses-progress-on-signing-fta/

[7] Ibid.

[8] “India–Canada Ties: Jaishankar, Anita Anand Hold Talks at UNGA,” India Today, September 27, 2026, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/india-canada-ties-jaishankar-anita-anand-unga-talks-ptag-3004336-2026-09-27

[9] Global Affairs Canada, “Minister Anand Meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs,” readout, September 27, 2026, https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2026/09/minister-anand-meets-with-indias-minister-of-external-affairs.html

[10] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi Speaks with US President Donald Trump,” September 30, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41837/Prime_Minister_Shri_Narendra_Modi_speaks_with_US_President_Donald_Trump

[11] Ibid.

[12] “Productive Discussion with USTR Greer on Early Conclusion of Trade Deal: Goyal,” The Hindu, October 01, 2026, https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/productive-discussion-with-ustr-greer-on-early-conclusion-of-trade-deal-goyal/article71531414.ece

[13] “US Pharma Tariffs and Indian Speciality Drugs,” Indian Express, September 29, 2026, https://indianexpress.com/article/world/us-pharma-tariffs-indian-speciality-drugs-donald-trump-10898369/

[14] “Trump announces plan for $15 billion steel plant, would be largest in U.S. history,” CNBC, September 28, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/28/trump-steel-plant-iowa.html

[15] “Trump unveils $15 billion planned Iowa steel project,” Reuters, September 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-unveil-planned-15-billion-iowa-steel-project-2026-09-28/

[16] Open Bureau, “India Launches Anti-Dumping Probes into Seven Chinese Products, Including Key Drug Ingredients,” Open Magazine, September 29, 2026, https://openthemagazine.com/india/india-launches-anti-dumping-probes-into-seven-chinese-products-including-key-drug-ingredients

[17] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Chargé d’Affaires of the Pakistan High Commission Summoned by Ministry of External Affairs,” October 03, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41843/Charg_dAffaires_of_the_Pakistan_High_Commission_summoned_by_Ministry_of_External_Affairs

[18] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “11th Meeting of the BIMSTEC Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (JWG-CTTC),” September 29 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41833/11th_meeting_of_the_BIMSTEC_Joint_Working_Group_on_Counter_Terrorism_and_Transnational_Crime_JWGCTTC

[19] Ibid.

[20] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “9th Deputy National Security Advisers Meeting,” September 30, 2026, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases?dtl/41835/9th_Deputy_National_Security_Advisers_Meeting

[21] Ibid.

[22] Sanjay Malhotra, “Preserving Financial Stability in an Evolving World” (special address, Fifth Kautilya Economic Conclave, October 3, 2026), Reserve Bank of India, https://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1582

[23] Ibid.

[24] India’s Consumer Durables Market to Touch $3.3 Trillion by 2030,” Business Standard, September 27, 2026, https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-s-consumer-durables-market-to-touch-3-3-25-trillion-by-2030-126092700268_1.html

[25] “GST mop-up grows 14.7% to over ₹2.03 lakh crore in September 2026,” The Hindu, October 01, 2026 https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/gst-collections-september-2026/article71531826.ece

[26] Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, “Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production and Use-Based Index for the Month of August 2026,” Press Information Bureau, Government of India, September 28, 2026, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2315957&reg=48&lang=2

[27] Ministry of Commerce and Industry, “14th India-UAE High Level Joint Task Force Meeting Held in Mumbai,” Press Information Bureau, Government of India, September 28, 2026, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2315968&reg=48&lang=2

[28] Yohaan Varghese, “UAE Signals Another $25 Billion Investment in India, Eyes Ports, Energy and Space Sectors: Goyal],” The Hindu, September 29, 2026 https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/uae-signals-another-25-billion-investment-in-india-eyes-ports-energy-and-space-sectors-goyal/article71520349.ece#google_vignette

[29] DD India, “Sitharaman Holds Bilateral Meetings with Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Jordan, Nepal in Doha,” September 29, 2026, https://ddindia.co.in/2026/09/sitharaman-holds-bilateral-meetings-with-saudi-arabia-switzerland-jordan-nepal-in-doha/

[30] Ministry of Defence, “Indian Armed Forces Contingent Departs for Joint Military Exercise KAZIND-2026,” Press Information Bureau, Government of India, September 28, 2026, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2315856&reg=3&lang=1

[31] Ministry of Defence, “Second JDC Meeting between India and Ethiopia Held in Addis Ababa,” Press Information Bureau, Government of India, September 28, 2026, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2316086&reg=48&lang=2

[32] Gunjan Samtani and George Lee, “AI Will Define the Next Era: Will India Capitalize on the Opportunity?,” Goldman Sachs Global Institute, June 26, 2025, https://www.goldmansachs.com/what-we-do/goldman-sachs-global-institute/articles/will-india-capitalize-on-the-ai-opportunity

[33] Ibid.

[34]  Ibid.

[35] Ministry of Electronics and IT, “India’s First 5.56 km Free-Space Quantum Key Distribution Link Demonstrated,” Press Information Bureau, Government of India, October 3, 2026, https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2318656&reg=48&lang=2

[36] Ibid.

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