America First, World Last: The New Era of Global Fragmentation and India’s Strategic Recalibration

Imran Khurshid*

Trump’s “America First” approach has accelerated global fragmentation, weakening alliances and opening strategic space for rival powers like China.

Today, the world is experiencing a profound geopolitical shift. From Europe and the Western Hemisphere to the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East, global stability seems to be collapsing. The risk of a major war has risen sharply, and the international system is increasingly unpredictable. In this chaotic environment, Donald Trump’s presidency has only added fuel to the fire. While the world was already moving in this direction, marked by rising nationalism, weakening institutions, and intensifying strategic competition, Trump has accelerated these trends and brought them into sharper focus. Under Trump, the United States has transformed into a transactional power that no longer believes in alliances or long-term partnerships. His foreign policy is based purely on immediate national gain, and he has openly signalled that the US will act unilaterally whenever it serves its interests. This shift toward transactional unilateralism is also reflected in the recently released US National Security Strategy, which emphasises “America First” priorities and underscores that the US will act independently to protect its interests. This transformation has created uncertainty worldwide, as traditional allies no longer know whether they can trust the US.

As former U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan observed, “when I go to these places now, and I talk to leaders, they are talking about derisking from the United States… they now see the US as the big disruptor, the country that can’t be counted on,” a perception that marks a significant shift in how US allies assess American reliability. In this context, India has been forced to reassess its strategic assumptions and adjust its approach to the US.

This article argues that these shifts have forced India to fundamentally recalibrate its strategic assumptions, prioritising resilience, diversification, and strategic autonomy.

Erosion of Multilateralism and Global Governance

Trump’s policies have also weakened global institutions and undermined multilateralism. In attempting to “Make America Great Again,” Trump is in fact accelerating America’s decline by pursuing self-defeating policies that erode U.S. leadership and hand strategic space to China. The US is withdrawing from international commitments and cutting funding for global initiatives, including the UN, climate change efforts, and humanitarian aid. This creates a power vacuum that China is ready to exploit. Ironically, Trump’s policies are undermining the very system the US once built to prevent global instability. The result is a world moving towards a system where every country pursues its own interests without any collective responsibility. As Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group and a leading geopolitical risk expert, argues, “Trump’s approach is helping to accelerate a transition toward a more fragmented world in which multiple regional powers compete for influence, rather than a single dominant U.S.-led order.” This is a world where strategic escalation is more likely and where global institutions no longer serve as a stabilising force. In this sense, Trump’s actions are pushing the US towards decline by weakening alliances, reducing global leadership, and encouraging rival powers to expand their influence.

A global survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests that Trump’s “America First” policies are perceived as strengthening China’s influence and weakening trust in US leadership, particularly in technology and international partnerships.

Unreliable Partner

The greatest shock has been felt in Europe. European allies now feel betrayed, cheated, and strategically exposed. For decades, Europe relied on the US-led security structure established during the Cold War, with NATO as its backbone. However, Trump’s behaviour has shattered that trust. His insults, undermining statements, and unilateral moves have deeply shaken Europe’s confidence in the United States. The very idea that the US is now considering taking Greenland, part of Denmark — a NATO member — has shocked Europe. It has made them question whether the US still views them as allies or merely as strategic assets. People in Denmark and Greenland reacted strongly by chanting “Greenland is not for sale,” holding banners that said “Back off, USA,” and even calling for “Make America go away.” In response, the US announced 10 percent tariffs on imports from eight European countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland—escalating to 25 percent if no deal is reached. This move further deepened the sense of betrayal, as it was perceived as economic blackmail aimed at allies who oppose the US push for Greenland. Such reactions show how deeply Europe feels humiliated and betrayed, as they now fear the US may treat their territories as bargaining chips. At the same time, Europe is facing a direct military threat from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both Russia and the United States are viewed by Europe as potentially dangerous powers in this regard. Europe finds itself trapped between Russia’s use of military force and the US’s strategic opportunism.

The most significant development is that at least seven European countries—France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and the Netherlands—deployed troops and military personnel in support of Denmark, mainly to Greenland. While this does not amount to a formal military mobilisation against the United States, it is unprecedented. For the first time since World War II, European countries collectively signalled military solidarity in response to pressure from Washington. Even after Trump backed down—dropping tariff threats and ruling out the use of force—these deployments were not withdrawn. This is a historic rupture in the transatlantic alliance. At the same time, Europe has paused or reconsidered free trade agreements with the US. This is not simply a trade dispute; it represents a fundamental breakdown in trust. The world is now at a dangerous turning point, where a single miscalculation could trigger a global catastrophe.

Yet there is an unintended consequence of this rupture. Trump’s unpredictable policies have jolted Europe out of a long period of strategic complacency. Europe had grown used to relying on American leadership, assuming the US would always stand by its allies. Trump has shattered that illusion, forcing Europe to confront a harsh reality: it can no longer take security for granted. In this sense, Europe owes Trump a paradoxical debt. His disruptive approach has awakened Europe from its deep slumber, compelling it to reclaim its strategic autonomy, rebuild its military capabilities, and restore its civilizational confidence. This moment, though dangerous, offers Europe a rare opportunity to regain its self-belief and assert its role as a truly independent power.

In this chaotic global environment, India has faced serious challenges under the Trump administration. For decades, India considered the US a reliable long-term strategic partner. However, Trump’s policies have shattered this assumption. Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, creating economic disruption and uncertainty. He has also threatened additional tariffs and has applied pressure on India regarding trade and strategic relations. This has forced India to reconsider its strategic dependence on the US. The earlier belief that the US would support India’s long-term rise has been challenged. India’s strategic establishment had assumed that India could follow the path of China and Japan by leveraging ties with the US to develop economically and strategically. Trump has fundamentally challenged this belief.

Turning Tariff Shock into Strategic Opportunity

However, India has responded strategically. The tariff shock forced India to diversify its trade partnerships. India accelerated new free trade agreements, including the India–UK CETA (2025), the India–Oman CEPA (signed 18 December 2025), the India–New Zealand FTA (2025), and the India–EFTA TEPA (implemented October 2025). India is also working toward a major deal with the European Union, expected to be signed in January 2026, while parallel negotiations are underway with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Canada, Chile, Peru, and Australia under a second-stage CECA, as well as with the Eurasian Economic Union. Through this diversification strategy, India is offsetting economic losses from higher US tariffs by expanding market access, trade volumes, and investment flows across Europe, the Gulf, and other emerging markets.

Despite the 50 per cent US tariffs, India continued to grow strongly; real GDP expanded by about 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY 2025–26, and growth in the first half of the fiscal year reached around 8 per cent, showing that India’s strategic response is working and the economy has absorbed external shocks without losing momentum. This substantial economic transformation, despite high tariffs and economic pressures, reflects that India is not a dead economy. India has also historically turned challenges into opportunities, as seen in 1991 when the balance-of-payments crisis led to major economic reforms that liberalised the economy and laid the foundation for long-term growth. At the same time, India has focused on internal resilience through the Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) strategy. Under this strategy, India has launched major reform packages and production-linked incentive schemes across key sectors, promoted manufacturing and technology development (including semiconductors and electronics), strengthened agricultural self-sufficiency, and pushed for defence self-reliance through increased indigenous production and exports.

In its defence deals, India now insists on clear technology transfer provisions, joint production, and co-development, and uses DRDO’s technology transfer mechanisms to licence critical technologies to Indian firms and to encourage domestic innovation.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed how dependencies can be weaponised geopolitically, and India has also observed how geopolitical conditionalities are leveraged during multiple global crises. India learned that vulnerabilities can be exploited during crises, which is why it is now prioritising diversification of partnerships, self-reliant supply chains, strategic autonomy, and reduction of external vulnerabilities. India is strengthening its technological and economic base to avoid being pressured by any single global power.

As noted in an Elara Securities analysis, “India’s export market composition also reflects a clear post-tariff rebalancing, away from excessive dependence on the US toward greater geographic diversification across West Asia, Asia and select emerging markets.”

This shift in India’s strategic approach is necessary because the world is entering a new era of strategic competition and instability. Global institutions are weakening, alliances are shifting, and major powers are acting unilaterally.

Strategic Resilience and India’s Future Policy Orientation

Going forward, India will engage with the United States, but not at the cost of strategic independence. India’s future strategy will be guided by reducing dependence, avoiding vulnerabilities, building internal resilience, diversifying partnerships, and ensuring strategic autonomy. While India was already pursuing diversification and strategic autonomy has long been part of its strategic thinking, what has fundamentally changed today are India’s core assumptions about the reliability and long-term nature of its relationship with the United States. New Delhi will not allow this partnership to become a source of dependence or vulnerability; instead, India will continue engagement while ensuring it retains freedom of action and avoids overreliance. The Trump era has forced India to wake up to geopolitical realities. In this sense, it may ultimately prove beneficial that India confronted these realities at an early stage, before deeper structural dependencies could take root. As India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated, “Recent experience has taught us that we should not rely on a single market, and that strategic autonomy is essential.” This statement reflects India’s evolving approach and confirms that the country is now focused on building resilience and avoiding overdependence, a shift clearly reflected in both India’s external engagements and domestic policy choices aimed at overcoming dependencies and geopolitical conditionalities.

The world is now at a dangerous moment, where a single escalation could lead to global destruction. Yet, for India, this moment also presents an opportunity. India must build its strength from within and diversify its partnerships to survive and thrive in this unpredictable world. The global geopolitical environment is changing rapidly, and India’s response must be strategic, resilient, and forward-looking.

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* Dr Imran Khurshid is an Associate Research Fellow, ICPS, Adjunct Fellow, Peninsula Foundation, Visiting Faculty, Nalanda University, Rajgir, Bihar, India. The views expressed here are personal.  