What is the Global Media Reporting on the Elections in France?

Compiled by Himanshi Sharma

What prompted President Macron to call for the recent National Assembly elections?

According to an article in Euronews, “French President Emmanuel Macron announced…that he would dissolve the national assembly after the far-right National Rally crushed his centrist Renew party in European elections.” The article further highlighted Macron’s warning about the “dangers nationalists and demagogues pose to France, Europe, and their international position.” He stressed the importance of the forthcoming national election, describing it as a crucial decision and an expression of trust in the French people and democracy.

How do the National Assembly elections work?

“There are 577 seats in the National Assembly, including 13 overseas districts and 11 constituencies representing French expats abroad. For an absolute majority, a party needs 289” notes an article in BBC. Further, the article states that “the first round eliminates all candidates who fail to win the support of 12.5% of locally registered voters…Anyone who scores 50% of the vote with a turnout of at least a quarter of the local electorate wins automatically…The second round is a series of run-offs fought either by two, three, or sometimes four candidates…There may be more of these than usual because of an expected high turnout…Some candidates may drop out before 7 July to give an ally a better chance of stopping a rival from winning, for example from the far right.” (BBC)

Who are the major political parties/groups in the election?

Macron’s Renaissance group: As per an article in The Brussels Times, Renaissance, previously known as La République En Marche (LREM), is a centrist and liberal political party founded by Emmanuel Macron in April 2016. Initially created to support Macron’s presidential bid, the party quickly rose to prominence, leading him to victory in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. The report also emphasizes that “the party has since focused on uniting various centrist factions, including Territoires de Progrès and Agir while maintaining collaborations with MoDem and Horizon, which remain independent but supportive of Macron’s agenda.”

National Rally (RN): In recent years, the National Rally has gained significant traction in French politics. For instance, in the 2024 European elections, it garnered 31.5% of the vote, outperforming President Macron’s party. This led to Macron dissolving the National Assembly and calling for early legislative elections, as highlighted in Politico.

Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP): According to Jacobin, “the Nouveau Front Populaire has officially been born. On Thursday evening, France’s four leading left-wing forces finalized a wide-ranging alliance to defeat Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in the upcoming snap elections and lay the groundwork for a different kind of government. France Insoumise, the Parti Socialiste, the Parti Communiste, and Les Écologistes will be running a common bloc of candidates across France’s 577 constituencies for the first-round vote, to be held on June 30.”

Les Républicains: As reported in About France, “in recent years, the Républicains have faced significant challenges. The party shifted rightward in 2017 when Laurent Wauquiez, the most conservative candidate, became chairman amidst a wave of moderate members supporting Emmanuel Macron. After Wauquiez’s tenure, during which the party attempted a return to center-right positions, it remains divided and has seen declining electoral support under Macron’s presidency. In 2021, the party opted for a more moderate candidate, Valérie Pécresse, for the 2022 Presidential election, struggling to define itself amidst competing factions from the far right and Macron’s center-right supporters.”

Who are the prominent politicians contesting the elections?

Jordan Bardella (28-year-old)
Raphaël Glucksmann (44 years)
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (72 years)

What explains very young politicians bidding for high constitutional office?

A report in Politico states that these young politicians often come from diverse backgrounds, including leading political families and non-traditional political paths. For example, Gabriel Attal, a prominent young French politician, quickly rose through the ranks, earning recognition for his effective communication skills and progressive stances. Similarly, Jordan Bardella of the National Rally has capitalized on his youth to connect with younger voters and project a fresh image for his party.

What are the major themes/issues during these elections?

Dominant issues during these elections –

Inflation/ High Cost of Living: A report in Euronews states that “France’s presidential candidates have different responses to voters’ concerns about money, from far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon’s suggestion to block prices and increase social measures to far-right candidates Marine Le Pen and Zemmour’s calls to cancel social aid for foreigners to save money. It’s also launched a debate about the efficiency of sanctions against Russia and its influence on prices. Concerns about purchasing power are interrelated with other economic concerns, experts say, such as energy prices, housing prices, and travel costs.”
Security and NATO: The same report also highlights that terrorism, once a dominant issue under François Hollande, is less central in the current election, with security concerns now focusing on petty crime, financial and health insecurities, and international security. The war in Ukraine has influenced voter perceptions, particularly affecting far-right candidate “Eric Zemmour” due to his pro-Putin stance. Additionally, “It has also put conversations about France’s role in NATO into the spotlight with several candidates calling for an unaligned position and a withdrawal from the military alliance. Far-left candidate Mélenchon would like to leave the military alliance, judging it as something that creates tension. Macron has called for a European defense strategy, including a common military budget.”
Immigration: Immigration remains a polarizing issue, with the far-right National Rally (RN) advocating for stricter immigration controls and policies to preserve French national identity. In contrast, left-wing parties call for more inclusive policies that support immigrant integration and human rights notes Politico and Encyclopaedia Brittanica.
Environment: “The environment remains a key concern for French people, with recent polls suggesting it was the third-largest issue for voters”, states a report in Euronews. The report also specifies that “As average annual temperatures in France rise significantly, the climate crisis is already being felt in the country…A report from France’s insurance federation late last year said insurance claims due to natural disasters caused by climate change could reach €143 billion between 2020 and 2050….A group of 26 environmental NGOs recently rated presidential candidates and determined that only Mélenchon and Yannick Jadot’s programs were mostly validated as beneficial for combatting climate change.”

What has been the impact of the EU elections on politics in France?

According to an article by Liana Fix in Council on Foreign Relations, ‘the results of the June elections for the European Parliament, one of the legislative bodies of the European Union (EU), has shaken the continent’s politics…Amid rancorous debate over migration, the war in Ukraine, and the future of the union, far-right parties made significant gains, especially in France, where President Emmanuel Macron announced snap parliamentary elections beginning later this month…That move could deepen political turmoil in one of the EU’s most important members.”

A report covered in Brookings highlights that “the final results of the EP elections in France show a large victory for Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, the far-right National Rally’s (RN) president and parliamentary group leader, respectively…They obtained about 31.4% of the vote share.” Additionally, the report also indicates that “there might be more continuity than expected in the European legislative body’s new parliamentary formation—but the results incited a political earthquake in France.”

How will French elections impact regional geopolitics?

A report in Foreign Policy points out that “over the next few weeks, Macron is likely to be consumed by domestic politics, weakening the voice of France for the many international summits ahead…It will be harder for him to advance initiatives that he personally champions, such as Eurobonds for defense at the European Council, a European pillar of NATO at the Washington summit, or a “new security architecture” for Europe at the next European Political Community summit in the United Kingdom. France’s partners and allies will be all too aware that his capacity to act, legislatively and budgetarily, will be much reduced if he has to share power with a prime minister from a rival party.”

According to Nicolas Garriga And Elise Morton, writing for Associate Press, “Bardella’s eurosceptic anti-immigration National Rally party, and particularly its former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, are known for close ties to Russia. Le Pen has expressed reservations about supplying Ukraine with additional arms. The far-right leader angling to become prime minister after France’s upcoming parliamentary election backtracked Wednesday on his party’s previous promise to pull out of NATO’s strategic military command.”

Stuart Lau, writing for Politico noted that ‘Jordan Bardella, the likely next prime minister if the National Rally wins the snap election, said in an interview with POLITICO that his party would wait for the war in Ukraine to end before pulling back from NATO commitments. Lau also writes that “the centrist Emmanuel Macron has vowed to stay on as president regardless of the results on July 7, the second round of the parliamentary elections…But the results will come only a few days before a high-stakes NATO summit in Washington…The French president would be severely weakened politically if he arrives in the U.S. with the prospect of having to name a far-right government.”

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Himanshi Sharma is working as an intern at the Politeia Research Foundation. The views expressed here are personal.