Global Media on the First Round of French Elections

Compiled by Himanshi Sharma

1. What were the results of the first round of the French snap elections?

According to RFI, “The party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella topped the poll with 33.15 percent of the votes cast, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance on 28.14 percent, and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition on 20.76 percent.

RN and its allies obtained around 9.3 million votes – more than double that of the previous legislative elections in 2022. It qualified for the second round in 455 of France’s 577 constituencies and came out on top in 297 of them. Compared to 2022, the RN increased its share of the vote in all constituencies with the exception of the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, where it won just 4.6 percent of the vote.”

Statistics published on Politico show the results of the first round of elections as follows:

2. How has the far-right impacted French politics?

‘The rise of the far-right in France has significantly impacted its political landscape, shaping both domestic and European politics. One of the most notable effects has been the mainstreaming of far-right ideas, spearheaded by Marine Le Pen and her National Rally (formerly National Front) party. Le Pen’s strategy of “de-demonization” has aimed to soften the party’s image, distancing it from its xenophobic and extremist roots while still promoting a nationalist agenda. This has included focusing on issues like immigration, national sovereignty, and opposition to the European Union, which resonate with a significant portion of the French electorate’, highlights an article on Politico. Furthermore, a transcript on Brookings emphasized that “in the 2022 presidential election, Le Pen garnered 41.5% of the vote, the highest ever for a far-right candidate in France. This has pressured mainstream parties to adopt stricter stances on immigration and national identity issues, effectively shifting the political discourse to the right. Additionally, the far-right’s rise has fragmented the traditional left-right political divide, complicating coalition-building and governance”

According to a report on Courthouse News Service, “On the European stage, the far-right’s impact is equally significant. The National Rally’s strong performance in European Parliament elections threatens to disrupt the EU’s cohesion. Le Pen’s eurosceptic stance and her party’s history of advocating for “Frexit” (France’s exit from the EU) highlight potential challenges to EU unity and policy-making. This influence extends to foreign policy, where a far-right government could alter France’s position on critical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and EU enlargement”

3. What could be the outcomes of the second round of elections?

A report on The Atlas News points out the possible outcomes:

1. There remains the possibility that the polls are inaccurate, leading to a scenario where Macron’s party retains a majority in Parliament, reaffirming his legitimacy and partly explaining his decision to dissolve the National Assembly.

2. It is more likely that a ‘cohabitation’ situation will occur, where the Prime Minister could be from either the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) or the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire.

3. If no substantial majority is formed through polls or coalitions, the President retains the prerogative to appoint the Prime Minister, potentially resulting in the current government remaining in a caretaker role until further elections are possible.

“Now there is a catch. Even if everything is set into motion in mainstream parties to stop a National Rally victory, the outcome will remain uncertain. Voters are the people who really matter — and they show few signs of wanting to follow orders. Furthermore, while the National Rally insisted it would only govern with an absolute majority during the first-round campaign, the party is now softening this position. Its leaders are saying that they could try to approach other lawmakers, particularly within the conservative Les Républicains group, to build a majority. if the party comes close to the required 289 seats for a majority, they will do whatever it takes to find the support from MPs that they need. That scenario would lead to more turmoil and uncertainty as the National Rally tries to persuade new MPs to come on board with it in a historic mission to put the far right in charge of France. According to an Elabe poll released before Sunday’s vote, barely one in four voters intended to follow the voting instructions delivered by their parties.” reads an article on Politico.

4. What is triangular contesting in French elections?

An article on RFI says “It’s normally straightforward: multiple candidates stand in the first round of French legislative elections, then the top two go through to a deciding round the week after. But little about these elections is normal. They are taking place three years ahead of schedule and were organised in less than three weeks after President Emmanuel Macron took the shock decision to dissolve parliament when his party took a drubbing in EU elections last month.” Moreover, the article also covered that, “the snap elections left voters with fewer choices due to a last-minute rush to field candidates, resulting in 4,010 candidates in the first round, down from 6,290 in 2022. This led to votes being concentrated in France’s three main political blocs: the far-right National Rally (RN), Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP). As a result, 306 constituencies are headed for second-round runoffs with three-way races, and five for four-way races. So-called “triangular” runoffs typically result in a win for whichever party came top in the first round, since the opposition is split.”

5. What are three key takeaways from the first round of elections?

High Voter Turnout: “French voters are turning out at the highest level in nearly 40 years for the first round of a snap legislative election that has seen the far-right National Rally dominating the polls. Figures show 59.4% of registered voters had cast a ballot as of 5 p.m. Paris time, compared with 39.4% at the same time in the last vote two years ago, according to the Interior Ministry.” (Bloomberg)

Others are watching: “Following the French election, reactions abroad have been varied and often critical. Belgian newspaper Le Soir accuses Macron of legitimizing the far right by failing to effectively combat them at the ballot box. In Germany, Der Spiegel questions Macron’s policies, particularly his approach towards countering nationalist populism. Meanwhile, Ukrainian concerns are centered on the National Rally’s ambiguous stance regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, highlighting uncertainties over the party’s commitment to supporting Ukraine militarily. These international responses underscore broader anxieties and critiques following the recent electoral outcomes in France.” (CFPM)

Left comes out strengthened: “Put together in a hurry, the Nouveau Front Populaire left-wing alliance outperformed its predecessor, the NUPES coalition of the June 2022 parliamentary elections. Once again united, the left seems to be benefiting from the strong mobilization against the far right and the collapse of the presidential coalition.” (Le Monde)

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