Image Source: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan.
Politeia Research Foundation interviewed Dr Satoru NAGAO on Sanae Takaichi’s election as Prime Minister of Japan. The interview focused on PM Takaichi’s Foreign Policy, her recent statements on Taiwan, and the future of India-Japan Relations. The following is the transcript of the email conversation.
PRF: Could you please explain the broader political context in which Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s Prime Minister?
Dr NAGAO: In August 2024, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his resignation. Subsequently, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a large election to select a new leader. While Sanae Takaichi received more votes than the other nine candidates, she did not secure an outright majority. However, in the runoff elections, Mr Shigeru Ishiba received more votes than Sanae Takaichi. Mr Shigeru Ishiba was sworn in as Prime Minister in October 2024. Mr Shigeru Ishiba called for early elections to the Lower House and was confident of securing a strong mandate from the electorate. However, contrary to his expectations, the LDP lost its majority for the first time since 2009. Even in the 2025 Upper House elections, the LDP failed to regain its majority. Subsequently, PM Ishiba had to step down, and in the subsequent election to choose a new LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi emerged as the victorious candidate. Many people see her as the successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and at the moment, she enjoys significant public support.
PRF: What are the key domestic political and economic decisions that the new Prime Minister has taken and promised to implement? Does Sanae Takaichi adhere to a specific economic philosophy, and what are the broad contours of that philosophy?
Dr NAGAO: PM Takaichi’s policy is based on former PM Abe’s policy. Therefore, she will be active in the diplomatic field. For instance, PM Abe visited 1.9 countries per month during his tenure. PM Kishida visited 1.6 countries per month, while PM Ishiba managed to visit only 0.8 countries per month. Since her swearing-in, PM Takaichi has visited two countries in her first month. There is a strong likelihood she will be as active as PM Abe. She is also active in economic policymaking. Her style is to generate necessary financial resources and invest in essential sectors. It is true that Japan has massive debt, but PM Takaichi is prioritising investment in critical sectors. It appears she believes in the investment-led growth model.
PRF: What are the main takeaways from Donald Trump’s visit to Japan? How would you assess President Trump’s economic and political involvement with Japan?
Dr NAGAO: For Japan, the US is its most important and influential ally. President Trump is prioritising establishing personal relationships with other leaders, and responding to his demands is important. Currently, the US is urging its allies and partners to increase their defence expenditure and share the security burden. PM Takaichi has decided to raise the defence budget to 2% of GDP by March 2026, a year earlier than initially planned. She also mentioned that Japan will boost its defence spending. As a result, PM Takaichi has succeeded in both building a personal relationship with President Trump and addressing the US’s demands.
PRF: How have Japan’s foreign policy establishment and analysts evaluated President Trump and President Xi Jinping’s summit meeting in South Korea?
Dr NAGAO: For the US, rare-earth supply from China is vital to making weapons against China. But 90% of the world’s rare-earth supply comes from China. And because of the midterm election, now is not a good time to escalate US-China competition, as it would damage the US economy. Additionally, the US must address Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and work towards stabilising the situation in the Middle East. Thus, temporarily, President Trump wants to maintain the status quo between the US and China. However, in the long term, the US-China competition will intensify. The US has some advantages in this situation. Due to US-China competition, many foreign investors have hesitated to invest in China. China’s economy has been struggling because of this. US policy towards China has been addressing issues one by one.
PRF: Could you please explain to us how Japan is interpreting President Trump’s repeated references to G-2?
Dr NAGAO: The US is leading its allies and partners, while recently, Russia has been relying on China. In September 2025, China held a massive military parade and invited leaders of many anti-US countries, such as Russia, North Korea, Belarus, Iran, Myanmar, and others. Therefore, G-2 indicates that the US views China as a rival comparable to the US-USSR Cold War.
PRF: What exactly were Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan? Are they very different from those made by previous prime ministers?
Dr NAGAO: PM Sanae Takaichi responded to a question from the opposition party, saying that the Taiwan crisis could be a survival-threatening situation for Japan and that Japan needs to do something, such as supporting the US operation to support Taiwan. She replied honestly and stated facts in her explanation.
Indeed, Japan’s policy remains unchanged. The Japan Self-Defence Force has indeed carried out numerous joint exercises with the US armed forces as part of the US-Japan-Philippines collaboration in the event of a Taiwan crisis. But it is also true that Japanese leaders did not explain the Taiwan issue in the past. Firstly, the security issue itself was taboo, and discussion was illogical after WWII. Secondly, there was no debate from kindergarten to university in the education system. Few debates existed in society, too. Therefore, there was little opportunity to address this issue extensively.
Anyway, PM Takaichi’s explanation states the facts honestly. However, in this case, China had an opportunity to build pressure on Japan’s new government. Indeed, whenever a new administration was sworn in, China tested its capabilities by creating trouble. For example, in 2001, when President George Bush was sworn in, Chinese fighter jets attempted to fly very close to a US reconnaissance plane and accidentally hit it. China created a crisis to assess the Bush administration’s reaction. After President Barack Obama was sworn in, Chinese ships surrounded a US survey ship to gauge President Obama’s response in 2009. The current situation pertaining to PM Sanae Takaichi’s statement on Taiwan is also an attempt to gauge the new administration’s response to a crisis.
President Xi Jinping met PM Takaichi in South Korea. There is a high likelihood that China expects Takaichi to serve as Prime Minister for a long time and, therefore, wants to assess her capabilities. That is why China is exploiting statements on Taiwan to conduct a stress test of PM Takaichi’s administration.
PRF: It appears that the Chinese leadership is very miffed with Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan. What policy measures has China taken to convey its displeasure?
Dr NAGAO: China’s officials have stated that “if the Japanese side dares to intervene in the Taiwan Straits situation by military means, it would constitute an act of invasion and would be met with strong fightback from China.” In China’s logic, not only Taiwan but also the current Okinawa prefecture in Japan was not part of Japan (they started to say that Okinawa was independent or part of China), but Japan invaded and took it. However, these claims are not based on actual facts, as Okinawa has been part of Japan for a long time.
According to SIPRI (a think tank in Sweden), China spent nearly six times Japan’s military expenditure. Japan cannot invade China now. In fact, China’s actions are very well organised. This indicates that China is not acting emotionally but is carrying out a calculated operation against Japan’s new government. China aims to gather sufficient data to deal with Japan’s new government by conducting stress tests.
PRF: How quickly do you think the current tensions between China and Japan will be addressed?
Dr NAGAO: The rise of China has been accompanied by Beijing’s increasing provocations against countries surrounding China. Not only Japan, but also India, Vietnam, and the Philippines have suffered considerably from Chinese provocations. This is a long-term trend, which means that even if current issues are resolved, new problems are likely to arise soon.
PRF: What has been the public response in Japan to Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan?
Dr NAGAO: Pacifist-based opposition parties are demanding that PM Takaichi retract her explanation. They also held demonstrations outside the PM’s office, which was reported in the media. Despite opposition from some parties, 70-75% of Japanese support their government, indicating that the majority of Japanese do not want PM Takaichi to give up. Her explanation was honest and not provocative. There is no reason for Japan to back down.
PRF: What was the response from the United States and Australia to Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan?
Dr NAGAO: In a series of comments on the X social media platform, the US ambassador to Japan denounced China’s response as provocative and coercive and sarcastically thanked Chinese diplomats for promoting US-Japan relations. It was a welcome message. President Trump also called both President Xi and Prime Minister Takaichi. Showing a US presence can always deter China, which was welcomed in Japan.
PRF: What are the areas in which Sanae Takaichi’s approach to politics and foreign policy is similar to and dissimilar from Shinzo Abe’s foreign policy?
Dr NAGAO: It is too early to say this, since PM Takaichi has served for only one month. But her address and other remarks indicate similarities with Shinzo Abe’s thinking, indeed.
PRF: How important is India in Sanae Takaichi’s foreign policy?
Dr NAGAO: PM Abe was a super pro-India politician. In the case of PM Takaichi, it remains unclear. However, PM Takaichi is active in diplomacy. PM Takaichi’s models herself as a follower of former PM Abe, so there is a possibility that she will also be pro-India like him.
PRF: In the changing geopolitical context, why do you think India is important in the Indo-Pacific region?
Dr NAGAO: This is a good question. I have published many articles on this theme. For Japan, the most important factor is the threat from China. To counter China, Japan aims to cooperate with India. In terms of India-Japan relations, defence cooperation has advanced significantly, but other areas of collaboration have not. In Japan’s history, defence cooperation has been a frontrunner among other forms of cooperation. US-Japan cooperation has progressed following the defence collaboration. Japan and the UK also work more closely after establishing defence cooperation. This indicates that defence cooperation between India and Japan will lead to other areas of collaboration.
India, with its rapidly growing economy and robust military, is critical to maintaining the military and economic balance in the Indo-Pacific region. Furthermore, the security dynamics in the Himalayan and the Pacific regions are interlinked. Therefore, India-Japan collaboration is critical for maintaining stability and fostering prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
India has been playing an important role in securing maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. In recent years, Japan has scaled up its engagement with African countries, especially those in East Africa. India is also focusing on East African countries. Perhaps India and Japan can now work on creating an Indian Ocean Africa Economic Zone Initiative. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor is also getting operationalised. So India and Japan can collaborate in the Arabian Sea region to promote security and prosperity.
Now, India is a rising power. India is on the way to becoming a major global power. Tomorrow is better than today. In this context, for Japan, rising India is always a new hope. We should recall PM Abe’s speech to the Indian Parliament. He said, “A strong India is in the best interest of Japan, and a strong Japan is in the best interest of India.” Now is the perfect moment to repeat that again.
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Dr Satoru Nagao is a Fellow (Non-Resident) at the Hudson Institute. He is also an associate professor at the Institute for International Strategy of Tokyo International University. Dr Nagao’s primary research area is the U.S.–Japan-India security cooperation. He was awarded his PhD by Gakushuin University in 2011 for his thesis, “India’s Military Strategy,” the first such research thesis on this topic in Japan.
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