Left-turns in Nepal’s Political Landscape

0
1251

(L to R) Pushpa Kumar Dahal (Prachanda), Sher Bahadur Deuba and, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. Image Source: Wikimedia Commons

by Mohit Musaddi

On March 04 (Monday), in a dramatic political development, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal’s (Prachanda) Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist Centre (CPN-MC) party severed ties with its alliance partner Nepali Congress (NC) and went back to a coalition with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML). The new coalition also includes Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and the Janata Samajvadi Party (JSP), who have 21 and 12 parliamentarians respectively in the Lower House. Subsequently Prachanda also reshuffled his Cabinet with three new ministers being sworn in, including one from his own party and the other two from CPN-UML and the RSP.1 It is important to note that the CPN-UML had themselves withdrawn support from the Maoist Centre following a rift over the backing of a candidate for the presidential polls in February 2023.

In a last dash effort to save the government, Sher Bahadur Deuba reportedly provided assurances that the Nepali Congress would support Maoist Congress’ bid for National Assembly Chair, as well as offered home and finance ministries.2 However, Dahal declined the offer and decided to pull support, stating that “I pushed for several initiatives for economic reform, but the finance minister declined them all, leading to growing frustration among the people”.3 Reports have indicated that one of the reasons for the breakup of the coalition was Sher Bahadur Deuba’s reluctance to replace finance minister Prakash Sharan Mahat, who had strained relations with Dahal over budget allocations to specific projects.4 NC’s decision to contest the next national elections independently may have also irked Prachanda.

At the same time, there are also reports that China, which has been pushing for Leftist unity may have influenced Prachanda’s decision. Dahal reportedly informed Deuba that he was “under pressure to join hands with the UML” while breaking up the coalition.5 An entirely communist-led government in Nepal will be in China’s interest. Communist Party delegates often travel to China to meet Chinese leaders and undertake training programmes. In 2023, a 19-member CPN (UML) delegation led by Secretary General Shankar Pokharel visited China from September 3-15.6 In January this year, a delegation from the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) led by Vice Minister Sun Haiyan travelled to Kathmandu “to strengthen party-to-party relations through a joint consultative conference with Nepali political leaders”.7 Such visits have increased in recent years, as in 2023, over 60 delegations from each side visited the other, marking one of the highest number of exchanges between the two countries.8

During his term as Prime Minister, Prachanda undertook a lengthy trip to China in September 2023. The visit resulted in the signing of “12 agreements, including seven MoUs, to enhance bilateral cooperation in sectors including trade, road connectivity, and information technology”.9 Even though Prachanda interacted with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asian Games in Hangzhou, the business was largely conducted between him and Premier Li Qiang. Prior to that, the Nepalese Prime Minister had also travelled to India in May-June 2023, which was aimed at deepening relations by facilitating talks, “which focused on cooperation in connectivity and energy, under the broad ambit of increasing bilateral trade”.10

A general feature of Nepali politics has been coalition governments. Since becoming a republic in 2008, the country has seen 13 different governments, with no single party ever getting a mandate to form the government. The new coalition will also remain on shaky grounds, with the next elections not scheduled before 2027. There are several aspects in which the UML and MC do not agree. One crucial disagreement also remains the adoption of the Transitional Justice Bill, in which the MC leaders have demanded blanket amnesty for the human rights violations during the insurgency. Moreover, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli and Prachanda are both strong personalities and have been each other’s biggest critics, and it remains to be seen how successfully they are in operating smoothly as partners this time, considering their earlier dalliances. Given that Oli’s CPN (UML) hold the largest number of seats in the new alliance, it will not be a surprise if he attempts to take over the leadership from Prachanda in the coming months, leading to even more turmoil.

However, amidst the recurring political crises in Nepal, its economy has continued to flounder at an alarming pace. Even though Nepal’s gross foreign exchange reserves continue to be healthy, primarily due to overseas remittances, its domestic sector output remains a concern. Agricultural and industrial production is falling, with manufacturing running way below its capacity.11 The economy suffered a recession in 2023 for the first time in six decades12, as exports have continued to decline, leading to ballooning trade deficit. Ultimately, a lack of stable policymaking caused by never-ending political games in Kathmandu has had an adverse impact on the citizens of the country.

Endnotes

1) “PadamGiri, Hit Bahadur Tamang, DP Aryal sworn in as ministers”, Setopati, March 04, 2024, available at https://en.setopati.com/political/162675

2) Anil Giri, “Growing rift, Oli’s overtures ended Congress-Maoist coalition”, The Kathmandu Post, March 04, 2024, available at https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/03/05/growing-rift-oli-s-overtures-ended-congress-maoist-coalition

3) Ibid.

4) YubarajGhimire, “Left alliance in power for 3rd time as Nepal PM dumps allies”, The Indian Express, March 05, 2024, available at https://indianexpress.com/article/world/left-alliance-in-power-for-3rd-time-as-nepal-pm-dumps-allies-9195731/

5) Anil Giri, “Growing rift, Oli’s overtures ended Congress-Maoist coalition”, The Kathmandu Post, March 04, 2024, available at https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/03/05/growing-rift-oli-s-overtures-ended-congress-maoist-coalition

6) “UML delegation visiting China ahead of Prime Minister Dahal”, The Kathmandu Post, August 30, 2023, available at https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2023/08/30/uml-delegation-visiting-china-ahead-of-prime-minister-dahal

7) “Chinese politicians meeting Nepali leaders”, The Kathmandu Post, January 27, 2024, available at https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2024/01/27/chinese-politicians-meeting-nepali-leaders

8) Ibid.

9) “Nepal, China sign 12 agreements during PM Prachanda’s visit to Beijing”, The Indian Express, September 25, 2023, available at https://indianexpress.com/article/world/nepal-china-sign-12-agreements-during-pm-prachandas-visit-to-beijing-8955838/

10) Mohit Musaddi and Sanjay Pulipaka, “Deepening India-Nepal Relations: Assessing the Outcomes of Prachanda’s Visit to India”, Politeia Research Foundation, June 10, 2023, available at https://prfworld.org/deepening-india-nepal-relations-assessing-the-outcomes-of-prachandas-visit-to-india/

11) HariBanshJha, “Deepening economic crisis in Nepal”, Observer Research Foundation, January 23, 2024, available at https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/deepening-economic-crisis-in-nepal

12) SangamPrasain, “Nepal plunges into its first recession in six decades”, The Kathmandu Post, April 30, 2023, available at https://kathmandupost.com/money/2023/04/30/nepal-plunges-into-its-first-recession-in-six-decades

Leave a Reply

Discover more from Politeia Research Foundation

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading