Trump, China and the Quad
Image Source: The White House
It is often said that a week is a long time in politics. It has been less than a week since Donald Trump took over as the 47th President of the United States, and therefore, it is too early to plot possible trajectories of Trump’s policies. Nonetheless, it is difficult to ignore the shifts in US policy since Trump assumed office as President.
Since Trump advocated harsh policies toward China during his election campaign, many are surprised that Trump is reaching out to China to build a better bilateral relationship. After winning the presidential race, President-elect Trump invited Xi Jinping to the presidential inauguration. However, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng was nominated to attend the inauguration. Before the presidential inauguration at the US Capitol, Trump called Xi Jinping and subsequently posted on social media that both leaders discussed “Trade, Fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects.” The Chinese read-out of the conversation noted that both leaders discussed the Ukraine crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the bilateral relationship. Interestingly, a report in Nikkei Asia speculated that President-elect Trump may have had multiple conversations with Chinese President Xi Jinping and asked “the Chinese side to persuade Putin to make peace.” In his video speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump called on China to facilitate the cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine and added that Beijing has “a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them.”
There were reports that President Trump is keen on travelling to China in the first 100 days of his term. After becoming President, Trump suspended the ban on TikTok, a Chinese social media platform with a large user base in the United States. Trump noted that TikTok played a significant role in his presidential re-election bid. President Trump was clear that he would allow TikTok to function as long as it addressed US concerns by handing over a significant stake in American operations to a US company. Trump’s decision to lift the ban on TikTok could have been because of other pragmatic considerations. The prospect of a TikTok ban prompted many American social media users to use other Chinese platforms, such as Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book/RedNote). Perhaps the US leadership felt it was better to allow TikTok to function instead of prompting Americans to move on to other Chinese social media platforms on which they have very little control. TikTok got a few weeks’ reprieve, during which it will decide on the proposed partial disinvestment of its US operations to an American firm.
Trump also did not implement massive tariffs on China’s exports to the United States. Instead, he has called his administration to conduct a more thorough review of the imports into the United States. Again, pragmatic considerations may have prompted Trump to take a more measured and calculated approach to tariffs on Chinese goods. Given the intertwining of the Chinese and the US economies, there was a concern that increased tariffs on Chinese goods would result in inflation in the United States. Because of inflation and economic challenges, many Americans voted for Donald Trump in the presidential elections. Ideally, Trump should be guided by an important principle viz., the harsh tariffs imposed on imports in general and on Chinese goods in particular should not translate into higher inflation in the United States.
There are a few important takeaways from Trump’s recent moves on China. First, Trump has demonstrated an intent to improve the bilateral relationship with China. Second, the burden is now on China to respond to Trump’s initiatives. Third, he bought time for his administration to have a better understanding of measures that need to be taken in case China does not adequately respond to his overtures to build a more peaceful and predictable bilateral relationship.
Finally, and importantly, Trump is positioning China as a principal actor that can end the Ukraine conflict. The US President, perhaps, is also hinting that the health of the bilateral trade relationship will be contingent on China’s willingness to collaborate with the US on global issues such as Ukraine. With the growing economic crisis in the country, China needs to have continued access to American markets and, therefore, must engage with the Trump administration. However, China needs to be careful to ensure that it does not come across as prioritising its trade relationship with the United States over the strategic partnership with Russia. It is broadly in this context that the video call between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping was organised. During the meeting, President Xi Jinping reportedly stated that both countries should work together to “lead China-Russia relations to a higher level, to cope with the uncertainty of the external environment with the stability and resilience of China-Russia relations.”
Do these developments imply that Trump will ignore relations with Quad countries in the Indo-Pacific? It is not certain if President Trump extended invitations to the prime ministers of India, Japan and Australia to attend the presidential inauguration. If he had, at least one of the prime ministers would have attended. However, as India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM), S. Jaishankar, noted, the meeting of Quad foreign ministers was organised within a few hours of the inauguration, which was a message in itself. Recalling his interaction with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya noted that he was “very impressed that his explanation of the framework did not mention China by name and antagonise it.” The large menu of policy collaboration between Quad countries demonstrates the multi-dimensional character of the grouping. In fact, the Joint Statement issued after the recent Quad foreign ministers’ meeting declared a commitment to strengthen cooperation in various domains, such as “regional maritime, economic, and technology security in the face of increasing threats, as well as promoting reliable and resilient supply chains.” Indeed, Quad is not a China-centric framework. However, its robust functioning will define economic/political interactions and the balance of power in Asia and beyond. For India, Quad is also one of the important platforms for bolstering domestic capabilities and collaborating with other like-minded countries to ensure a peaceful order.
During his recent visit to the US, India’s EAM had fruitful meetings with US leadership. In fact, Marco Rubio’s first bilateral meeting with a foreign leader was with S. Jaishankar. This year, the Quad Summit will be held in India, giving the Indian leadership more opportunities to interact with American, Japanese, and Australian leaders.
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Sanjay Pulipaka is the Chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation. The views expressed here are personal.
Politeia Research Foundation is a non-profit initiative that reflects on global and public policy issues, and engages with plural worldviews and diverse ideas.
