The US Presidential Elections: The Final Phase

by Sanjay Pulipaka
In a few days, the United States (US) presidential election will conclude, and the country will have a new leader. Unlike other presidential elections over the past decades, the 2024 presidential elections underwent many twists and turns. A sitting US President running for office withdrew from the contest, and his vice president became the new nominee. There were two assassination attempts on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, which he narrowly survived. For the second time in US history, a woman candidate, nominated by the Democratic Party, is running for the high office of president. This is the first time that a woman who also happens to be a person of colour is contesting for the office of president.
The latest surveys indicate a close fight between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Some surveys, such as those by the Wall Street Journal, showed Donald Trump has a slight edge in the nationwide numbers. According to the surveys, in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, President Donald Trump is leading by wafer-thin margins. Both candidates are spending considerable resources and time in swing states. In many states, the early voting process has been initiated, and the surveys show mixed results.
The mood in the Donald Trump camp is upbeat. Trump recently organised a massive public meeting in Madison Square in New York, conveying an impression that he is gaining support even in states perceived as the Democratic Party’s strongholds. Famous entrepreneur and tech innovator Elon Musk and well-known politicians such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr are supporting Donald Trump.
A few reports pointed out that many young men, including some with African American backgrounds, are gravitating towards Donald Trump in this presidential election. Trump has
made persistent efforts to reach out to the young demographic, participating in podcast conversations with personalities who have a significant following among young voters. Because of the economic vagaries, many young men were reportedly keen to vote for Donald Trump. It is well known that African Americans and Latino Americans constitute a strong vote base of the Democratic Party. To encourage young people to vote for Kamala Harris, former President Obama, popular with youth, was pressed into action. Kamala Harris’s stance on abortion rights for women is finding resonance with many women voters. Hollywood stars and musicians such as Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Bruce Springsteen, Beyoncé and others have also declared support for Kamala Harris. Beyond personalities, issues such as the state of the economy and illegal immigration have emerged as critical defining factors in the US presidential election campaigns.
Economy and Illegal Immigration
Donald Trump and his Republican Party are aggressively campaigning that President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have mishandled the economy. While the American economy experienced some challenges during and after the pandemic, it has shown early signs of recovery recently. Today, the United States GDP stands at approximately $28 trillion, with a GDP growth rate of 2.8% and an unemployment rate at a low of 4.1%. However, from a political perspective, the improvements in the US economy have come rather late in President Biden’s term. Since Kamala Harris is the vice president, she’s carrying the burden of disappointment regarding the economic performance.
To counter the Trump campaign’s narrative, Kamala Harris has articulated an Opportunity Economy plan. She vowed to address the challenge of addressing the deficit of 3 million new homes during her tenure as president. Kamala Harris promised to provide “$25,000 in downpayment assistance for 400,000 first-generation home buyers or homebuyers whose parents don’t own a home.” She pledged to provide Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) for private and non-profit developers to build affordable housing. Kamala Harris vowed to provide middle-income and low-income families with children a $6,000 tax credit during the first year after childbirth. She has also articulated the need to support new businesses by providing tax cuts in various domains, including for alternative/renewable energy businesses. To fund the above welfare policies, Kamala Harris proposed to increase the corporate tax from 21 % to 28 % and other taxes on super-rich segments of the society.
On the other hand, Trump promised to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, reinforcing Trump’s image as a business-friendly politician. It should be noted that during his earlier tenure, in 2017, Donald Trump reduced the “corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%.” While Trump proposed a “tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent or a loved one,” his vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, contemplated the possibility of a $5,000 tax credit per child. Trump’s proposal to “eliminate taxes on tips” has gained traction among young voters. Since many youngsters work in restaurants and other places where they receive tips, eliminating taxes on tips is expected to prompt many youngsters to vote for Trump.
It is well known that Trump believes that globalisation has resulted in the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US. During the campaign, Trump has vowed to impose heavy tariffs on “imported cars and trucks” to promote domestic manufacturing. Trump specifically stated that he would impose punishing duties on imported cars manufactured by the Chinese firms in Mexico. A few months ago, pointing out that imported Chinese goods are undermining American manufacturing, Trump stated he would impose “60% or higher taxes on Chinese goods in his potential second term.” Trump, during the campaign, has often noted that the economic challenges in the country are also a consequence of illegal immigration.
Illegal immigration in the United States has become a big theme in the presidential elections. Since Kamala Harris was tasked with reducing illegal migration, there has been growing criticism that she has not done enough to stop illegal migrants from entering the country. On the other hand, Kamala Harris has been criticising Donald Trump for preventing the passage of legislation that would have given more powers to border agencies to deal with illegal migration.
Because of the economic challenges in many South American countries and the presence of a border that is relatively easy to cross, a fairly large number of people from South American countries(such as Mexico, Venezuela, Guatemala, Cuba, and Honduras) have often moved into the United States as illegal immigrants. The United States economy also received a steady supply of labour willing to work at lower wages. Excessive illegal immigration, Donald Trump and his republican party members contend, is undermining the job opportunities for the citizens of the United States and has contributed to a housing crisis. Trump often points out that during his tenure, he has imposed strict regulation on illegal migration through various policies, such as deploying Title 42 (the Public Health Act, which enabled authorities to remove asylum seekers and migrants, citing the need to prevent the spread covid virus) and Remain Mexico programme (migrants were sent back to Mexico till they received notices to appear at the immigration court). While Trump has called for mass deportations of illegal migrants and scaling up the ‘physical barriers along the US-Mexico border’, Kamala Harris stressed re-examining the asylum eligibility provisions and increasing funding for asylum officers and border patrols.
Conclusion
The shrill rhetoric during the elections on various social and economic policies reflects a deep divide in society on what constitutes an American dream. Sadly, in this election, there is considerable discussion on the possible electoral malpractices that may happen. There are concerns that illegal immigrants will be permitted to vote in the elections, and therefore, there are demands that voter identification be made mandatory. There were instances when postal ballots were set on fire in a few states. As citizens of a fellow democracy, many in India hope and pray that the US elections will conclude peacefully without further accentuating the political discord in the country.
Sanjay Pulipaka is the Chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation. The views expressed here are personal.































