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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be on a State Visit to the United States of America from June 21 to June 23. In addition to interacting with President Joseph Biden and his team, the Indian premier will address a joint session of the United States (US) Congress. Over the past few months, considerable preparatory work was conducted including during the recent visits of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to India. Earlier this year, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also travelled to New Delhi for the G20 Foreign Ministers’ and Quad Ministerial meetings. The Secretary also met External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar.
There is an anticipation that the visit will result in significant outcomes. For instance, Kurt Campbell, the Indo-Pacific coordinator of the US National Security Council, stated: “My hope is that this visit consecrates the India-US relationship as the most important bilateral relationship for the US on the global stage and that we effectively make it into escape velocity.”
Over the last two decades, the relationship between India and the US has significantly improved and is on a positive upward trajectory. During much of the Cold War, the bilateral relationship did not reach its full potential, and the brief episodes of cooperation did not translate into a strategic partnership. In the past two decades, both countries have worked assiduously to overcome the hesitations of history and course-correct the trajectory of the bilateral relationship.
It is important to acknowledge that the US is a superpower with the world’s largest economy and military capabilities unmatched by any other country. The US has a dominant presence in global institutions and can define the contours of global conversations on international politics and the economy. For a country with such power resources, modifying its policy with India was relatively easy.
On the other hand, India did not command similar power resources and had to overcome the memory of hostility during the Cold War. In 1971, the US moved its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier into the Bay of Bengal, threatening India during the conflict with Pakistan. After the 1998 nuclear tests, the US imposed sanctions on India. From Delhi’s perspective, the US policies in its neighbourhood were not always helpful. The US had a long history of supporting Pakistan even after the end of the Cold War. The hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan enabled organisations with regressive ideological frameworks to take control of the country. Despite these experiences, the Indian leadership has demonstrated considerable commitment to upgrading the bilateral relationship with the US.
In some quarters, in the US, there are apprehensions about the reliability of India as an alliance partner. An alliance means that if one partner is attacked, it will also be treated as an attack on the other partner. However, the challenge lies in the fact that Washington is yet to acknowledge Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir as integral parts of India, as defined by Delhi. Without a mutually accepted understanding of the territorial extent of each other’s territories, there can be no alliance. Moreover, as India’s External Affairs Minister noted, deploying Western treaty templates on India may not be useful either.
Further, there is also scepticism among some in the US about whether there can be value congruence between Indian and US foreign policies. Often, such assessments stem from a genuine concern to protect the bilateral relationship from exaggerated expectations and consequent disappointments. Nonetheless, the fact that Indian foreign policy is sometimes subjected to harsh evaluation also points to the ability of the US to marshal its academic and intellectual infrastructure to load the conversations in its favour. Creating discourses to ensure that a partner concedes more during the negotiations is a well-established tactic in international politics. In addition, the United States is a democratic country where diverse opinions shape its public discourse.
India’s engagement with the US is premised on the belief that democracies create spaces for genuine conversations, which can be leveraged to enhance cooperation and address the irritants in the bilateral relationship. Over the years, India has made persistent efforts to nudge the US to understand the complexity of its domestic politics, its difficult regional context and its need to have diverse partners on the global landscape.
The US and Indian economies operate on liberal market principles, although with differing levels of emphasis. Such adherence to liberal market principles provided opportunities for increased economic engagement between the two countries. In 2022-23, with a total trade of USD 128.78 billion in goods, the US is the largest trade partner of India. Interestingly, Indian companies invested about USD 40 billion in the US. On the other hand, between 2000-March 2023, the US is the third largest investor in India, with foreign direct investments of about USD 60.19 billion. With initiatives such as Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, India may attract more investment from US companies in various critical technologies, including chip manufacturing. Building on the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for establishing a Semiconductor Sub-Committee under the rubric of commercial dialogue between the two countries, India will be eager for increased partnership in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.
In May 2022, the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) was launched to strengthen defence-industrial cooperation. During the upcoming Indian prime minister’s visit, it is likely that substantive progress will be made on the Roadmap for Defence Industry Cooperation. There are ongoing efforts to integrate the defence industrial ecosystems of both countries by ensuring increased supply chain engagement.
In terms of specific weapon systems, India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved the acquisition of armed Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) from the US. The two countries are expected to sign a formal agreement during the Indian prime minister’s visit. There is also anticipation that India and the US may sign an agreement on the transfer of technologies pertaining to General Electric’s GE-F414 INS6 fighter jet engine. From almost negligible defence imports, India’s defence purchases from the US will soon breach USD 25 billion. In addition, there have been significant interactions between Indian and the US defence forces through bilateral and multi-national exercises.
Through platforms like Quad, India and the US are attempting to shape the Indo-Pacific security and economic architecture. In addition to the wider Indo-Pacific, during the Indian premier’s visit, the need for a coordinated foreign policy approach in India’s immediate eastern neighbourhood may receive attention.
The Indian leadership may also discuss the measures to ensure not merely diversification of supply chains but also to build resilient supply chains. At a broader level, India will examine if the developed West is working to ensure a greater sync between geopolitical strategies and geoeconomic policies.
Given the global power shift, India, over the years, has been calling for the reform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). India will appreciate an unambiguous statement from the US supporting India’s candidature for the permanent seat in the UNSC and the time-bound reform process of the United Nations.
As the Indian and US leaders discuss emerging geopolitical trends, the aggressive territorial assertions of China in various regions will be a point of conversation. However, to assume that the evolving India-US relationship is only a consequence of shared concerns regarding the rise of China would be erroneous. The enhanced economic engagement, people-to-people interactions, growing technological collaboration, the presence of a large Indian diaspora and value congruence is what drives the India-US relationship.
There is a need to critically evaluate the value-interest dichotomy, as values also define the way interests are delineated and pursued. A better appreciation of the India-US relationship will require transcending such conceptual dichotomies.
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Sanjay Pulipaka is the chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation. He was a Pavate Fellow at the University of Cambridge and a Fulbright Fellow in the US. The views expressed here are personal.
Politeia Research Foundation is a non-profit initiative that reflects on global and public policy issues, and engages with plural worldviews and diverse ideas.
